I got this idea from the Bill Simmons Sportsguy podcast about rating the NFL teams with a blue-chip rating. They evaluated teams in the NFL based on a point system that Mike Lombardi came up with. I like the term “Blue Chip” because this is the preferred nomenclature for the cream of the crop high school recruits in the country. I’ll be working on my blue chip team ratings in the next couple of days, but while I was searching for the formula online I stumbled upon a QB predictor rating that ESPN uses to predict the success of quarterbacks in the NFL.
The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks.
The formula for BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. – 60)x5] +[(Career TD/INT ratio – 2.25)x10]
I wanted to see how our Pac-10 QB’s stack up this year so I decided to plug all of their numbers into an excel chart. I added the two newest QB’s in the conference from Colorado and Utah, but I also wanted to see how our QB’s stack up against the top QB’s in the country. There’s been a lot of hype in the off-season about Jake Locker and Andrew Luck so this might be something that factors into their draft status next April.
The biggest surprise to most people will probably be Jake Locker low on this list, but I’ve seen him play at least a dozen times and despite him possessing elite athleticism he doesn’t read defenses quickly or check down as fast as other QB’s in the conference. His accuracy (58.2% in 2009) is the biggest reason that his rating is so low and will need to be above 60% this year to make the Husky offense dangerous.
Looking more closely at Andrew Luck’s rating, you can see that his 56% completion percentage from 2009 needs improvement. For the most part he was consistent, but in the two games that Toby Gerhart struggled to run the ball (Cal & Oregon St) he went 22-60 for 36% completion percentage in losing efforts. I’ve already stated in my conference projections that I think he will have a more difficult time passing the ball this year, but I still think he’s the best quarterback in the conference.
Here are the other top quarterbacks in the country with Greg McElroy being the Leader of the Pac with a great passing percentage and TD/INT ratio. I used his career stats, but his completion percentage in garbage time in 2007 and 2008 inflated his numbers almost five percent. Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State and Christian Ponder of Florida State have 22 starts a piece to go along with solid, but unspectacular completion percentages and TD/INT ratios, but they have better numbers than some of the Pac-10 quarterbacks. Ryan Mallett being at the bottom of this list came as a surprise to me, because he’s regarded as the third best quarterback in the country behind Locker and Luck.
As you can see from this chart, only Nick Foles of Arizona stacks up well with the other top quarterbacks in the country, but Andrew Luck and Jordan Wynn of Utah are right on the cusp. There’s going to be some exciting football to be played in the conference this year with strong quarterbacks and uncertainties in multiple secondaries.
Here’s what some notable NFL players rated heading into the draft
|cores of First-Round Quarterbacks, 1997-2008|
|Group I: Strong likelihood of success|
|Philip Rivers||NC State||2004||48.44|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Miami (Ohio)||2004||33.85|
|Daunte Culpepper||Central Florida||1999||30.00|
|David Carr||Fresno State||2002||23.97|
|Eli Manning||Ole Miss||2004||23.14|
|Group II: Hit-or-Miss|
|Brady Quinn||Notre Dame||2007||18.93|
|Matt Ryan||Boston College||2008||9.14|
|Group III: Busts|
|Michael Vick||Virginia Tech||2001||-11.32|
|Ryan Leaf||Washington St.||1998||-16.92|
|Jim Druckenmiller||Virginia Tech||1997||-20.25|
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