NASPAQ – Pac-12 Stock Report : Week 3

23 09 2010

On Separation Saturday the Pac-12 split the four games against ranked opponents with  Arizona State losing by a point at Wisconsin, the Dawgs getting a beat down like they were facing Michael Vick, and two big upset performances out of Arizona and UCLA. Two teams (USC & Oregon State) couldn’t cover the spread against inferior opponents, and Cal had their annual national television audience letdown against Nevada. Playboy also came out with their Girls of the Pac-10 edition and it’s a must get. Leader of the Pac’s official girl is now Rachel Lorraine of UCLA (pictured below).

Quarterbacks

Let’s jump right into our competitive positional markets with the quarterbacks. In case you haven’t already heard, Jake Locker (LUCK) had a miserable day and was outplayed by a freshman on his home turf. He’s apparently unaware of the Under Armour commercials or protecting the house, and his stock is down 20% because of it. On the opposite end of the spectrum was Andrew Luck (LUCK) who had the speedy Chris Owusu back at wide receiver to help him complete 17 of 23 passes and four touchdowns. His numbers were identical to his week 1 stats except he had 100 less yards. Nick Foles (FOLE) was the runner up for top QB performance this week and saw his stock go up 8% with an impressive win over Iowa. His interception for a pick-six hurt his stock, but he still topped out at $135 this week.

Team Symbol Δ Δ% Total
Andrew Luck Stanford LUCK ↑ 15 12% $140
Nick Foles Arizona FOLE ↑ 10 8% $135
Matt Barkley USC BARK $120
Jake Locker UW LOCK ↓20 20% $80
Kevin Riley Cal RILE ↓10 11% $85
Jordan Wynn Utah WYNN $55
Tyler Hansen Col HANS ↑ 10 25% $40
Darron Thomas Oregon DARR ↑ 5 20% $30
Kevin Prince UCLA PRNC ↑ 5 33% $20
Ryan Katz OSU KATZ ↑ 5 33% $20

Wide Receivers

Most of the wide receivers saw a decrease in their receptions this week, but their stocks continued to rise. Juron Criner (CRIN) had to leave the Arizona game with turf toe, but still managed a 46 yard touchdown reception. Robert Woods (WOOD)only had 4 receptions, but his 97 yard punt return for a touchdown increased his stock by $10. James Rodgers (JROD) only had 5 receptions for 22 yards, Jake Locker couldn’t get the ball to Jermaine Kearse (JERM), and Ronald Johnson (ROJO) only caught three balls, but all three finished with a touchdown. My horn needs to be tooted as I left James Rodgers off of the pre-season All-Pac-10 Team, because I predicted his numbers would drop.

Team Symbol Δ Δ% Total
Juron Criner Arizona CRIN ↑ 5 7% $70
Jermaine Kearse UW JERM ↑ 5 7% $70
Ronald Johnson USC ROJO ↑ 5 10% $55
Marvin Jones Cal MARV ↑ 10 25% $50
James Rodgers OSU JROD ↓10 18% $45
Jeff Maehl Oregon MAEL ↑ 10 33% $40
Doug Baldwin Stanford BALD ↑ 5 25% $30
DeVonte Christopher Utah DEVO ↑ 5 25% $25
Robert Woods USC WOOD ↑ 10 66% $25
Keenan Allen Cal KEEN ↓10 33% $20
David Ausberry USC BERY $15
Devin Aguilar UW AGUI ↓10 40% $15

Running Backs

The nation already knows that the Pac-12 is the Conference of Quarterbacks, but the running backs are quickly becoming the best in college football. LaMichael James (LMJ) and Shane Vereen (VERE) saw a $20 bump in their stocks with 200+ yard performances. Vereen had multiple highlight reel runs and LMJ has speed like the Twilight vampires. We had some great running from the LA schools starting with Allen Bradford (BRAD) finally breaking through with his 12 carries for 131 yards and a 56 yard touchdown. Not to be outplayed by his cross-town rival, Johnathan Franklink (FRNK) of UCLA looks to be the man to take the SuperSoaker offense to pistol status after his 160 yards and 3 touchdowns. His stock IPO’d this week at $20.

Team Symbol Δ Δ % Total
JacQuizz Rodgers OSU QUIZ ↑ 5 4% $125
LaMichael James Oregon LMJ ↑ 20 19% $125
Shane Vereen Cal VERE ↑ 20 26% $95
Chris Polk UW POLK ↓ 5 6% $75
Kenjon Barner Oregon BARN ↓10 18% $45
Nic Grigsby Arizona GRIG ↓10 28% $35
Allen Bradford USC BRAD ↑ 5 33% $20
Cam Marshall ASU MRSH ↓ 5 25% $15
Marc Tyler USC MARC ↓ 5 25% $15

IPO’s

We had some standout performances  on the defensive side of the ball with Patrick Larimore (LARI) being the Leader of the Pac. Larimore was named the Nagurskie National Defensive Player of the week after recording 11 tackles (10 of which were solo), a forced fumble, and a pass breakup in UCLA’s upset of the Houston Cougars. While Cal was getting pistol-whipped by Nevada, DJ Holt (HOLT) notched 16 tackles forced a fumble. Rumor has it that he is the cousin of famous Arrested Development star Steve Holt so watch for him on the Berkeley campus doing something like this. Dwight Roberson (ROBE) also had a sweet 16 tackles for the Oregon State Beavers with their victory over  Louisville. Jordan Wynn’s backup – Terrance Cain (CAIN), was almost perfect by throwing 20 for 23 as the Utes knocked off UNLV. He’s proving that he might be the best backup quarterback in the conference.

Team Symbol Δ Δ% Total
Johnathan Franklin UCLA FRNK $20
Patrick Larimore UCLA LARI $20
DJ Holt Cal HOLT $20
James Washington Arizona WASH $20
Dwight Roberson OSU ROBE $20
Steven Threet ASU THREE $15
Terrance Cain UTAH CAIN $15
Tyler Gaffney Stanford GAFF $10
Stepfan Tylor Stanford STEP $10

Don’t Be So Defensive

Players Market

Our analysts thought before the season that teams could avoid directing their plays around Akeem Ayers (AYER), but his big play potential is ubiquitous. He should have scored on his 77 yard interception return but he gets style points for breaking Case Keenum’s ankles (or knee).  Mason Foster had 14 tackles and forced a fumble against Nebraska, but Taylor Martinez told him to hit the weights on his way to an 80 yard touchdown run. Foster is #40 and the guy that misses the tackle on the play. Brooks Reed (REED) may look like a blonde version of the WWE wrestling icon Undertaker, but it translated perfectly when he buried Ricky Stanzi on four consecutive plays to end their chances of a comeback. His pressure off the edge has led to James Washington (WASH) ascension to the conference’s sack leader through three games.

Team Symbol Δ Δ% Total
Akeem Ayers UCLA AYER ↑ 10 11% $95
Rahim Moore UCLA MOOR ↑ 10 12% $90
Mason Foster UW FOST ↑ 5 6% $85
Jurrell Casey USC CASE ↑ 5 6% $85
Vontaze Burfict ASU BURF ↑ 5 6% $85
Brooks Reed Arizona REED ↑ 10 13% $85
Mike Mohamed Cal MIKE $80
Omar Bolden ASU BOLD ↑ 10 15% $75
Trevin Wade Arizona WADE ↑ 10 15% $75
Tony Dye UCLA DYE $55
Malcolm Smith USC SMIT ↓ 5 $50
Richard Sherman Stanford SHER $45
TJ McDonald USC TJMC ↑ 5 20% $30
Cliff Harris Oregon CLIF ↑ 5 20% $30
Michael Thomas Stanford THOM ↑ 5 33% $20

Unit Market

Oregon is #1 in the nation in scoring and total defense, but even scarier is the that all of the reps their younger players receive in blowouts make them a deeper unit each game. Cal and UW were absolutely rocked in their blowout losses, and USC did just enough to eek out the win. Nickell Robey and TJ McDonald are looking very promising in the secondary for the Trojans, but the team as a unit is still undisciplined. UCLA has proven that it has the best secondary in the conference by shutting down Case Keenum and Andrew Luck in back-to-back weeks, but they need to get stronger up front with all of the great running backs in the Pac-12. Oregon State was unable to avoid the slow start this year after losing their first game and they have an even tougher test this week when they travel to face Boise State on the Smurf Turf. A strong defensive performance is exactly what the Beavers will need to give the offense a chance.

Symbol Δ Δ% Total
Oregon Defense ORED ↑ 10 8% $135
Arizona Defense ARID ↑ 10 15% $75
Utah Defense UTAD ↑ 5 7% $70
ASU Defense ASUD ↑ 5 8% $65
USC Defense USCD $60
Stanford Defense STAD ↑ 10 20% $60
UCLA Defense UCLD ↑ 15 37% $55
Cal Defense CALD ↓ 10 16% $50
OSU Defense OSUD $40
Colorado Defense COLD ↑ 5 16% $35
UW Defense UWD ↓ 10 22% $35

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Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

17 09 2010

The Pac-12 now boasts seven ranked teams in the two polls, but even more impressive is the fortitude to schedule four other ranked opponents (#8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa, #11 Wisconsin, #23 Houston) in addition to the playing the most difficult of all BCS conference schedules.

#25 Cal at Nevada: The Bears have the number one defense in the country and The Wolfpack have the number one offense. Colin Kaepernick hasn’t faced a front seven as good as the Bears in his entire career, but Cameron Jordan and Kendrick Payne will try to introduce themselves in the backfield. My guess is that the defense prevails. Bears 34 – Wolfpack 27

#18 USC at Minnesota: Lane Kiffin left the defense at home in his first game, he left the offense in Hawaii for game 2, could there be a special teams disaster on the horizon? Trojans 38 – Golden Gophers 20

#23 Houston at UCLA: The Bruins might be facing Houston without their Heisman candidate – Case Keenum, who suffered a concussion last week. If he’s unable to play the Bruins might get their first win behind a strong defensive performance. I’m guessing that Keenum plays. Cougars 24 – UCLA 19

Arizona State at #11 Wisconsin: The Sun Devils won’t have a chance if they can’t stop the 255lb running back known as John Clay. ASU is one of the most aggressive defensive teams in the conference, but they will need to minimize the penalties to keep the game within reach. Badgers 30 – Sun Devils 13

#8 Nebraska at Washington: The Cornhuskers freshman quarterback – Taylor Martinez, looks like a Jake Locker clone with the ability to make plays when they break down. The Husky defense will struggle to stop the running game, but if their offense gets rolling they will stay in the game. Dawgs 27 – Huskers 24

Wake Forest at #19 Stanford, 8:15: Stanford wants redemption after they lost a game in the final minutes at Wake Forest last year. Andrew Luck struggled against the talented UCLA secondary, but Wake Forest won’t be able to match the Pac-10 speed. Cardinal 34 – Demon Deacons 17

Portland State at #5 Oregon: The Oregon offense should keep on rolling and this game might be an opportunity to get a lot of reps out of Darron Thomas. Ducks 52 – Vikings 10

Louisville at #25 Oregon State: The Rodgers Brothers should put on a show against an inferior opponent, but this could be a statement game for new Louisville head coach Charlie Strong, former defensive coordinator of the Florida Gators. Oregon State wants to bounce back after their loss against TCU. Expect Ryan Katz to improve from his 9 of 25 performance in week one. Beavers 34 – Cardinals 14

#9 Iowa at #24Arizona: Arizona will attempt to spread out the Iowa defense and get their play makers in space. Iowa’s DE Adrian Clayborne leads arguably the best defensive line in the country and will likely shut down the Wildcat running game. I think Arizona plays with a chip on their shoulder and the secondary comes up with a big play late.  Wildcats 27 – Hawkeyes 23

#14 Utah at New Mexico: New Mexico is still recovering from the beat down that Oregon put on them, the Utes cruise in this one 37 – 14.

Hawaii at Colorado: The Buffaloes were cooked into bison burgers in Berkeley last week, but the benefits of the loss are learning where you can improve. Hawaii is not nearly as good on the road. Buffs 33 – Rainbows 24

2010 Prediction Record 20-1

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Best Pac-10 Non-Conference Games

19 08 2010

Week 1  – September 4th

UCLA @ Kansas State

Kansas State is the first of three Midwest teams that UCLA faces this year and the weakest team before they begin Pac-10 play. Will Kevin Prince be healthy by the time the season starts or will junior college transfer Darius Bell take the pistol offense to desert eagle status? Can the UCLA defense contain Daniel Thomas without Brian Price and Reggie Carter?

Oregon St vs TCU

This should be one of the top non-conference games of the year, and TCU returns 16 starters from a team that posted a 12-1 record in 2009, but they’ll be without their two best defensive  players who were drafted into the NFL- Daryl Washington and Jerry Hughes. Oregon State’s two best players (JacQuizz & James Rodgers) hail from Texas, but they bring with them a contrarian version of  “everything is bigger in Texas” by packing huge punches in small packages.   Mike Riley needs to break his streak of slow starts and a victory against TCU in Cowboy Stadium would likely bump them into the top 15 rankings.

Washington @ BYU

Jake Heaps was the top prep quarterback last year and hailed from Sammamish, WA, but he spurned the local team for an opportunity have polygamist relationships while he’s in college. The Dawgs didn’t win a road game last year and Jake Locker needs a victory to keep his name among the Heisman candidates.


Week 2 – September 11th

Colorado @ Cal

Cal would like to welcome Colorado to the conference with some rookie hazing, and I think the loser’s coach should have his head shaved by the victor. Hawkins probably won’t agree to it, because Tedford is already balding, but maybe he could agree to a tattoo bet in its stead.

Oregon @ Tennessee

Kudos to the Volunteers for scheduling their third Pac-10 team in the last four years, but Oregon is bringing a high powered offense against a young Vols defense. Chip Kelly lost his big non-conference game last year against Boise State and the defensive coordinator for the Broncos was none other than the current Tennessee Volunteers DC Justin Wilcox.

Week 3 – September 18th

Houston @ UCLA

Case Keenum is likely a Heisman candidate and the Houston Cougars were the number one offense in the country last year averaging 42.2 points per game. They’ll be facing arguably the top secondary in the Pac-10 led by UCLA’s All-American Rahim Moore.

Iowa @ Arizona

Nick Foles took over midway through the Iowa game last year and nearly stole the game from the Hawkeyes. This year he’ll be playing from the start and will be looking for payback. Their girls look like they will fit in just fine in the desert.

ASU @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin is probably the most overrated team that starts off the season in the top 10, but they are tough at home because they make their opponents eat a half dozen bratwursts for breakfast the day of the game. John Clay ran for 1,517 yards and 18TD’s last year, but Vontaze Burfict is the most dangerous defensive player in the conference and will be chasing him all over the field. Wisconsin also boasts an efficient passing game with Scott Tolzien throwing for 2,705 yards and an impressive 64% completion percentage last year. His 11TD’s to 16INT’s ratio proves that he’s still vulnerable if you can apply some pressure on him.

Nebraska @ Washington

The Cornhuskers welcome back 16 starters and a couple defensive players that will be playing in the NFL next year, most notably Prince Amukamara who’s rated #3 on the ESPN draft board . Washington also sports one of their own on the draft board with the number one overall player in Jake Locker. Nebraska will start the season in the top 10, but at times last year their offense was about as exciting as watching paint dry so look for the Huskies to try to get into a shootout.

Week 4 – September 25th

UCLA @ Texas

The Texas Longhorns were scared of the competition they would face in the Pac-16 so they backed out at the last minute, but the Bruins are just the team make them regret that decision. Rick Neuheisel will be taking a page out of Rocky Balboa’s strategy by taking punches & points on the chin with hopes that it will wear Texas down. Side bets will be taken for which team wins the battle of the coeds? Longhorns bring more blondes, but UCLA has blondes, brunettes, and some of the hottest Asian women you’ll ever see.

Oregon State @ Boise State

This game should feature some of the worst jerseys in the NCAA and it will be played on the ugliest turf in the country. If Oregon State comes out of their non-conference undefeated, they’ll be in the top five in the country.

Stanford @ Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s only chance will be Touchdown Jesus strapping up his cleats and playing for the Fighting Irish secondary, because Andrew Luck is going to spank them harder than their catholic priests ever have.

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