Pac-12 – Week 5 Predictions

2 10 2010

Georgia at Colorado, 4PM: This coach that loses this game will have blisters all over his ass from his hot seat. Dan Hawkins needs this one more because he hasn’t won a high profile game outside of conference play since he’s been in Boulder. AJ Green is back for this game so I’m expecting them to find him early and often. Bulldogs 27 – Buffs 23

Washington State at UCLA, 12:30PM: UCLA showed us why Texas didn’t want to be in the Pac-16 with Kevin Prince and Johnathan Franklin firing on all cylinders. Washington State is at the bottom of the Pac, but if the Bruins have an emotional letdown after the big win this could be a close one coming down to the kicking game.  Fortunately for UCLA Kai Forbath is the best in the business. Bruins 27  – Cougars 17

Washington at #18 USC, 5PM ESPN2: The two Pete Carroll disciples are battling it out for the title of teacher’s pet. The Huskies upset the Trojans last year in Seattle after Jake Locker engineered a game winning 68 yard scoring drive. USC is looking for payback and they have more talent in the trenches. Trojans 35 – Huskies 24

Arizona State at Oregon State, 3:30PM: The Beavers have looked awful defensively, but this is just about the time that they turn it around every season. Arizona State is coming off of two emotional losses, but they match up well with the Beavers. This is a breakout game for the Rodgers brothers. Beavers 31 – Sun Devils 23

#9 Stanford at #4 Oregon, 5PM ABC: The winner of this game will immediately be mentioned as a national championship contender. Stanford is deadly when they get into the red zone and Oregon can strike from anywhere. The Furd will struggle to run the ball and both offenses will get off to slow starts but finish in a shootout. I love the Ducks in this one.  Ducks 37 – Trees 31

2010 Prediction Record 34-5

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Pac-10 Blue Chip Team Scores

11 08 2010

I had a lot of trouble with the formatting of this article, so I just had to put the information into excel and made some jpeg files out of the information which look blurry on the blog, but will be clear if you click on them. Mike Lombardi came up with this blue-chip formula to determine how much talent is on each team in the NFL, but I only follow former Pac-10 players and wanted to see how our conference would look applying the same scoring system. The outside linebackers account for 2.5 more points than the middle linebackers, which makes sense for the NFL where most teams are using a 3-4 defense, but the majority of teams in college are still using a four man front and the middle linebacker can impact the game more than an outside linebacker – think Casey Matthews of Oregon and Vontaze Burfict of ASU. I was also concerned that the red chip secondary players received the same 7.5 points as the blue chip players. There are many talented players in the NFL secondaries, but in college there aren’t that many cornerbacks and safeties that would make as big of an impact as many of the blue chip players at other positions.

Arizona has a total of 80 points with a good mix of offensive and defensive players, with points coming from both the skill positions and in the trenches. Arizona State only has 30 points with 22.5 of those coming from the defensive side of the ball, so don’t expect them to be lighting up the scoreboard any time soon. Cal surprised me with 82 points, but Tedford has recruited as well as any coach in the conference not named Pete Carroll.
Arizona Points Arizona St Points Cal Points
Nick Foles 12.5 Lawrence Guy 7.5 Mitchell Schwartz 10
Adam Grant 10 Vontaze Burfict 7.5 Cameron Jordan 10
Ricky Elmore 10 Omar Bolden 7.5 Anthony Miller 7.5
Juron Criner 7.5 Thomas Weber 7.5 Matt Summers-Gavin 7.5
Colin Baxter 7.5 Mike Mohamed 7.5
Trevin Wade 7.5 Bryan Anger 7.5
Robert Golden 7.5 Mychal Kendricks 7.5
James Brooks 7.5 Sean Cattouse 7.5
Nic Grigsby 5 Kevin Riley 7
Shane Vereen 5
Marvin Jones 5
Chris Guarnero 5
Derrick Hill 5
Oregon brings 82.5 points with strength in the trenches. I think Casey Matthews is more valuable to their defense than the 7.5 points he’s allotted, but Paysinger received a higher rating in the formula and evened out the same number of points I would have given them combined. Oregon State has a lot of skill players, but without much depth in the trenches their team only accounts for 55 points so this tells me that they should be relying on the big plays this season. Stanford brings almost all of their 67.5 points on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Owusu probably would have made the list as the next red-chip wide receiver, but he gets 7.5 points for his kick return abilities.

Oregon Points Oregon St Points Stanford Points
Bo Thran 10 JacQuizz Rodgers 7.5 Andrew Luck 12.5
Kenny Rowe 10 James Rodgers 7.5 David DeCastro 7.5
Spencer Paysinger 10 Joe Halahuni 7.5 Chris Owusu 7.5
LaMichael James 7.5 Stephen Paea 7.5 Chase Beeler 7.5
Carson York 7.5 Lance Mitchell 7.5 Delondo Howell 7.5
Casey Matthews 7.5 Justin Kahut 7.5 Ryan Whalen 5
John Boyett 7.5 Michael Philipp 5 Jonathan Martin 5
Talmadge Jackson 7.5 Alex Linnekohl 5 Owen Maracic 5
Jeff Maehl 5 Andrew Phillips 5
Mark Asper 5 Shane Skov 5
Brandon Bair 5

UCLA will be carried by their defense and special teams this year, but that’s two thirds of the game so maybe they’ll do better than the 8th place finish the media projected them for. Still, they are only bringing 45 points to the table and having a kicker be the most dangerous weapon on your offense is never a good sign. USC is stocked with talent throughout the roster so it’s no surprise that they are the Leader of the Pac with 84 points in the blue chip scoring. The Washington Huskies totaled 42.5 points and will be relying on a strong passing game to win some games for them, but there’s not much talent on the offensive or defensive lines.

UCLA Points USC Points Washington Points
Akeem Ayers 10 Tyron Smith 10 Jake Locker 12.5
Kai Forbath 7.5 Butch Lewis 7.5 Mason Foster 10
Rahim Moore 7.5 Kris O’Dowd 7.5 Desmond Trufant 7.5
Jeff Locke 7.5 Jurrell Casey 7.5 Jermaine Kearse 7.5
Sheldon Price 7.5 Shareece Wright 7.5 Chris Polk 5
Nelson Rosario 5 Malcolm Smith 7.5
Michael Morgan 7.5
Matt Barkley 7
Nick Perry 7
Ronald Johnson 5
Stanley Havili 5
Chris Galippo 5

Here’s all of the team points in alphabetical order and these are pretty consistent with my conference predictions which were posted a month ago.

Points
Arizona 80
ASU 30
Cal 82
Oregon 82.5
Oregon State 55
Stanford 67.5
UCLA 45
USC 84
Washington 42.5

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2010 Preseason All-Pac-10 Team

21 07 2010

The first annual Leader of the Pac All-Pac-10 team is completed, a second team will probably appear in the next couple weeks.

First team offense

QB- Jake Locker – Washington

RB- Jacquizz Rodgers – Oregon St

RB- LaMichael James – Oregon

WR- Jermaine Kearse – Washington

WR- Juron Criner – Arizona

TE- Anthony Miller – Cal

OL – Adam Grant – Arizona

OL – Bo Thran – Oregon

OL- Kristopher O’Dowd – USC

OL- Butch Lewis – USC

OL- Mitchell Schwartz – Cal

K- Kai Forbath – UCLA

KR- Chris Owusu – Stanford

PR- James Rodgers – Oregon St

I had a tough time picking a quarterback for the first team, because I think Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, and Nick Foles actually have better mechanics and accuracy than Locker and two of their teams (USC and Arizona) I have projected to have a better season than Washington. The deciding factor for me was Steve Sarkisian’s ability to put Locker in the right situation and the improvement that comes along with having the same person calling the plays in consecutive years.

Wide receiver was also a tough position to pick and leaving James Rodgers off the list was the hardest part of the team, but I think his numbers will drop significantly this year. If I make a second team list, that’s where I would put him along with Ronald Johnson.

The offensive line was tough for me, because as badly as I wanted to put some Stanford guys on the list I think they’re going to have a much tougher time protecting the QB this year. They would have multiple second team guys on my list.

First Team Defense

DL- Kenny Rowe – Oregon

DL- Stephen Paea – Oregon St

DL- Jurrell Casey – USC

DL- Cameron Jordan – Cal

LB- Vontaze Burfict – Arizona St

LB- Mike Mohamed – Cal

LB- Mason Foster – Washington

CB- Trevin Wade – Arizona

CB- Omar Bolden – Arizona St

S- Rahim Moore – UCLA

S- John Boyett – Oregon

P- Bryan Anger – Cal

For the defensive line I almost went with Arizona’s Ricky Elmore, but I think he’ll have a tougher time with Arizona losing their defensive tackles from last season.

At linebacker I wanted to put Akeem Ayers on the team, but with the loss of Brian Price and Reggie Carter I’m expecting him to be the guy that offenses plan around. I think Mason Foster and the Husky defense will have a hard time getting off the field, so look for his tackles to increase this year.

This is a rather weak year for secondary players in the Pac-10, at least when it comes to name recognition, but Rahim Moore is on every All-American list and leads the pac. There are better cover guys than John Boyett, but he’s a tackling machine and ended up with 90 last year.

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