Pac-12 Football: Week 12 Predictions

18 11 2010

Week 11 delivered more exciting story lines with Cal players faking injuries like WWE superstars, Chip Kelly getting frustrated with sideline reporters, and Auburn’s Cam Newton still collecting cash payments to play at Auburn.

Cal’s marketing department had a brilliant strategy this past weekend. They convinced all the hippies in Berkeley that they were having a prop 19 rally at the stadium and when they showed up to the football game they spewed their venomous chants at the Oregon Ducks and almost guided their team to the upset. The infamous New York Jets reporter Ines Sainz is all-in on the Ducks this year and she loves the highlighter jerseys.

It’s safe to say that Arizona’s performance this year parallels the premature ejaculation that affects 25-40% of men in the United States. Getting revenge against Iowa, climbing to the top ten in the rankings, and now finding themselves on a 2 game skid in November leaves their gorgeous coeds as disappointed as they are in the bedroom.

Oregon State has been relegated to the doormat of the conference after getting thumped by Washington State this past weekend. The Cougs haven’t won a conference game since 2007 and there’s nothing more embarrassing than having the loss come on your home turf. Everybody should take home a cougar this week and show them some love.

On to the games

UCLA at Washington: This is a must win for both teams if they want to make it to a bowl game. If the faculty and fans  show up with the same energy that they’ve expressed about the parking and traffic situation on a busy Thursday in Seattle then the fans should be a factor in the game. Gore-Tex 27 – Flip Flops 20

Utah at San Diego State: Utah felt the wrath of Jesus at Notre Dame last week while San Diego State gave TCU all they could handle. Which Indian tribe will go Apacalypto on the other? Utes 28 – Aztecs 24

USC at Oregon State: Lots of double entendres when the Beavers and Trojans face off this weekend, but I’ll let your imaginations run wild with it. I’m guessing the Beavs were looking ahead to this weekend, but they love crapping on USC when they come to town. Beavers 27 – Trojans 24

Stanford at Cal: Cal fans took over Stanford’s stadium last year after upsetting them in Palo Alto, and look for them to rejoice again in Strawberry Canyon. Mike Mohamed and Mychal Kendricks will be all over Andrew Luck and the Bears come away victorious 24 – 20

2010 Prediction Record 61-19

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The Decisions

15 07 2010

The Decision by Lebron James to leave one of the worst cities in the country (Cleveland) for beaches and babes seemed like a no-brainer, but the coaches of the best conference in the nation will be making more of an impact for guys that like tailgating, coeds, and football. We had some monumental decision in the Pac-12 that we’ve outlined for the casual fan to see what’s going on in preparation of the 2010 season.

Stanford – Jim Harbaugh

Coach keeps himself thin in the off-season by avoiding the Dairy Queen diet, but he’s already planning his post Rose Bowl victory meal.

USC – Lane Kiffin

Lane Kiffin’s biggest decision this off-season was whether or not he would start running for governor of California in the 2011 election. For a guy who played at Fresno St and brings an 11-18 career record as a head coach, some people are wondering what his next job that he doesn’t deserve will be?

Cal – Jeff Tedford

Coach has had been working exclusively with Dr. Phil in the off-season to see if he can build up quarterback Kevin Riley’s confidence. His only recommendation was shock therapy.

Arizona St – Dennis Erickson

Erickson has been mulling retirement since he turned 85 years old twenty years ago, but it is gaining serious traction now that he lives in Arizona. Coach recently said that if the Sun Devils don’t show significant improvement he’ll be in a retirement home playing Bingo, Canasta, and Pinochle with Ray Finkle.

Oregon – Chip Kelly

Chip Kelly has been spending a lot of time in the court room this off-season and he has decided to make criminal justice the new sociology major for his team. All of his incoming freshman are required to take Introductory Morals and How to Avoid Getting Arrested 101.

Arizona – Mike Stoops

The loudest man in the Pac-10 has decided to enroll in Dr. Drew’s Celebrity Anger Management. Drew saw progress in 2009 after working with Stoops, but thinks he has room for improvement if he surrounds himself with other people like Lindsay Lohan after she gets out of jail.

UCLA – Rick Neuheisel

As soon as Rick Neuheisel heard about world cup this year he immediately decided to join a pool. He picked Brazil to win, but lost $10,000 for coming in 6th place in his group of shady friends. Following the loss of the Brazilians, Neuheisel decided to switch bookies.

Washington – Steve Sarkisian

The biggest decision in Seattle was whether or not Coach should start plugging Jake Locker as the next Heisman candidate. He didn’t know whether he should wait until Locker gets another road win since his last one came in November of 2007. He’s been trying to keep it under wraps as Locker tours all of the east coast media outlets.

Oregon St – Mike Riley

The slow starts in Corvallis have been killing Oregon St for years and Mike Riley finally discovered that his book of How to Start Fasting actually has to do with not eating. He recently decided to switch over to the Twilight series.

Washington St – Paul Wulff 

After Wulff decided to give up on west coast recruiting and hit Florida, he started to think outside the box and start recruiting in the church.  Coach has been looking for priests and pastors with eligibility remaining, because he realizes his only chance of a win is to pray for it. My sources have also told me that they are brining in a team of nuns to join the cheerleaders and if they have moves like this one I’m all for it.

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Pac-10 Conference Predictions

6 07 2010

After almost a week without a new post, I have finally completed the conference predictions. I didn’t include the newest members of the conference, and didn’t account for them in the rankings for each unit that you’ll see at the end of each team. I looked at every team’s schedule and posted which games that I predict them to lose. I ranked the offenses, defenses, and schedules of the teams to determine how they will finish the season. The schedule rankings were more heavily weighted towards conference schedules, but Oregon St took a big drop because their non-conference schedule includes two top five teams.

Offensive Rankings Defensive Rankings Schedule Ranking
  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. Oregon St
  4. Cal
  5. Arizona
  6. USC
  7. Stanford
  8. UCLA
  9. Washington St
  10. Arizona St
  1. Oregon
  2. USC
  3. Oregon St
  4. Cal
  5. ASU
  6. UCLA
  7. Arizona
  8. Washington
  9. Stanford
  10. Washington St
  1. WSU
  2. USC
  3. Arizona
  4. Stanford
  5. UCLA
  6. Oregon
  7. Cal
  8. ASU
  9. Oregon St
  10. Washington

1. USC

The Trojans don’t have the explosive offense or dominant defense of their ’04 or ’05 teams, but they still have the deepest roster in the conference to go along with a favorable schedule. They get Oregon at home and they face Oregon St much later in the season (week 11) than the last two times they traveled to Corvallis. I’m projecting their game with the Beavers to be a loss, because the Trojans haven’t won there since 2004. The next most difficult match up will be against Arizona on the road. The Wildcats beat USC last year in LA, and the spread offense will give the Trojans young secondary a problem. Washington and Stanford could also pose a problem with strong QB play.

Projected Record- 11-2 (edited 7/15 to reflect a 13 game schedule)

Projected Losses- @ Arizona, @Oregon St

Tossup games- Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Offensive rank- #5, Defensive rank- #2, Schedule rank- #2, Total points- 9

2. Oregon

The loss of Jeremiah Masoli will really hurt this team offensively, which in turn will hurt them defensively. There were many times when Masoli extended plays with his legs and picked up first downs for Oregon, most notably in the Civil War on a 4th and 6 to keep the ball away from Oregon St and clinch the game. Masoli’s 668 yards rushing ranked second on the team and his threat of running the ball created opportunities in the spread-option offense for LaMichael James. Oregon will not have that luxury with Nate Costa, but he might be a better passer than Masoli who was average at best. If Oregon is going to compete for the Pac-12 championship this year it will need to have strong play from the QB position, because he’s not going to get much help from their average wide receiving corps and little depth. The running back depth will probably be better with blue-chip freshman Lache Seastrunk, but his running style is similar to LMJ.  Kenny Rowe led the conference in sacks last year and he has two solid linebackers behind him in Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger. This is a very aggressive defense and they miss a lot of tackles because of it, which led to their free safety John Boyett leading the team in tackles last year. The problem for Oregon is that they will be facing their top 3 opponents on the road this year in USC, OSU, and Cal where  Jeff Tedford has never lost to Oregon at home.

Projected Record- 9-3

Projected losses @Cal, @USC, @OSU

Tossup games: Arizona, Stanford

Offense Rank- #2, Defense Rank- #1, Schedule rank-#6, Total Points – 9

3. Arizona

Nick Foles and Juron Criner will form one of the top QB-WR tandems in the conference, but the Wildcats depth at WR took a hit when Deleshaun Dean violated the team’s gun policy and felt he needed to protect his pancakes at all costs. Arizona will face a tough test when Iowa travels to Tuscon in week three of the season. The strength of the Arizona defense will be at defensive end, but their lack of experience at defensive tackle and linebacker could create problems for the Arizona secondary.  Arizona was a descent road team last year beating OSU & USC, but they should have beaten Washington and were in a position to beat Cal if it weren’t for two once-in-a-lifetime plays (videos linked). I see them struggling against Stanford and Washington if they’re not able to pressure their QB’s. A lack of defensive experience is going to be the Achilles heel of this team in 2010.

Projected Record 8-4

Projected Losses Iowa, @Stanford, @Oregon, Washington

Tossup games USC, Cal, OSU

Offensive rank-#5,  Defensive rank- #7, Schedule rank-#3, Total points – 15

4. Cal

The Golden Bears were Pac-10 champions  in 2006, but this team has been an enigma ever since. Jeff Tedford was supposed to be one of the premier quarterback coaches in the nation, but four years into the Kevin Riley project has the guru still searching for answers. The Bears had significant turnover in their coaching staff this off-season losing their Defensive Coordinator Bob Gregory and letting go of Special Teams Coach Pete Alamar. Despite the lack of consistency at QB, and an offensive line that gave up 31 sacks a year ago, the Bears have some weapons at their disposal. Mike Mohamed led the conference in tackles last year, and Cameron Jordan is one of the top defensive lineman in the conference. Cal landed the top outside linebacker recruit of 2010 in Chris Martin and he’s expected to be the weapon off the edge that they’ve lacked since Zack Follett’s departure to the NFL. Shane Vareen quietly had a productive 950 yards and 12 TD’s a year ago, but look for his numbers to go up as he’s slated to be the starter all season.  Mel Kiper has ranked Anthony Milleras the number one tight end in the country among juniors and Marvin Jones was Kevin Riley’s favorite target a year ago at WR. The Bears get Oregon and Washington at home, but they have to travel to travel to USC, Arizona, and Oregon St.

Projected Record 9-3

Projected Losses @USC, @Arizona, @OSU

Tossup games: Oregon, Washington, Stanford

Offensive rank #4, Defensive rank #4, Schedule rank #7, Total points – 15

5. Oregon St

For six consecutive years the Beavers have lost at least 2 of their first four games and 2010 won’t be any different when they face Boise St and TCU in the first three weeks of the season. The Beavers have the top two play makers in the conference in the Rodgers brothers, but there will be a significant drop-off at QB after losing first team All-Pac 10 member Sean Canfield. I’m expecting Jacquizz to see more carries at running back, but teams will be looking to stack the line against the Beavers to beat them with the pass. Although this is a great year to be breaking in a new QB with lots of unsettled secondaries in the conference, Oregon St also had trouble protecting their QB last year giving up 29 sacks. They return four starters on the offensive line, but there’s a big difference in their run and pass blocking capabilities. Inexperienced quarterbacks are more prone to turning the ball over if they are uncomfortable in the pocket, and it could be a real problem for the Beavers. They face the top two opponents in the conference in Oregon and USC at home, and even with projections of beating both of them I still see this team struggling on the road to finish with three conference losses.

Projected Record: 7-5

Projected Losses: @TCU, @Boise St, @Arizona, @Washington @Stanford

Tossup games: USC, Oregon

Offensive rank#3, Defensive rank #3, Schedule rank #9, Total points – 15

6. Washington

Jake Locker is going to be the leader of 11 returning starters on offense, but unless he can suit up on defense the Huskies are going to have a hard time winning on the road. All of the pieces are in place offensively with one of the best tandems in the country at wide receiver in Devin Aguilar & Jermaine Kearse, a solid tight end in Kavario Middleton, and a capable weapon at running back in Chris Polk – all protected by an offensive line that accounts for 88 career starts. As good as the offense is going to be, the defense might be as equally bad. Mason Foster has great instincts at LB which led to 3 interceptions, six 6 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery in 2009, but other than that the cupboard is sparse in terms of depth and talent. Even worse for the Huskies is their brutal road schedule that includes trips to the better team in every region – Oregon, USC, Cal, and Arizona. They will have an opportunity to gain some hype early with a game against a preseason top 10 team Nebraska, but a loss will certainly damage their confidence going forward.

Projected record: 8-4

Projected losses: Nebraska, @USC, @Oregon, @Cal,

Tossup games: @Arizona, Stanford, OSU

Offensive rank #1, Defensive rank #8, Schedule rank #10, Total points – 19

7. Stanford

Stanford’s had the second best offensive line in the nation by only giving up 8 sacks all year. Part of the reason for low sack totals has to do with the success they had running the ball (537 attempts), so they only threw 313 passes all year. That luxury is gone now that Gerhart is playing on Sundays, so I’m expecting that total to go up. The guys behind Gerhart might be quicker, but they are not going to wear down opposing defenses and Andrew Luck will be the primary weapon that defensive coordinators will try to stop. The strong offensive line will help, but I’m expecting some drop-off in the offense this year. The defense has switched to a 3-4 in the off-season, but they lack the right personnel to be good this year. They have a strong linebacker corps led by Shane Skov, but they don’t have the big defensive lineman to hold the blocks and create opportunities for them. It will take a couple years of recruiting to get the right pieces in place for this defense as their crosstown rival Cal is finding out. The Cardinal were 2nd to last in the Pac-10 defense last year giving up 402 yards per game, and it could be even worse this year without a strong running game to burn the clock. The Cardinal get USC at home, but have to play Oregon and Washington on the road.

Projected record: 6-6

Projected losses: @Notre Dame, USC, @Oregon, @Washington, @Cal, @UCLA

Tossup games: Arizona, ASU

Offensive rank #7, Defensive rank #9, Schedule rank #4, Total points – 20

8. UCLA

Coach Rick Neuheisel is coming off his best recruiting class since arriving in LA, but when you’re expecting freshman to make a big impact on your team, you’re in trouble. UCLA has a combined 92 career starts on the offensive line, but they gave up 28 sacks last year so the talent on the line is as big of a question mark as every other position on this team. The Bruins have two preseason All-Americans with linebacker Akeem Ayers and safety Rahim Moore, but I’m expecting their production to decrease with Brian Price going on to the NFL. Neuheisel brought in two blue-chip guys on the defensive line in Owa Odighuizuwa (try saying that five times fast) and Cameron Marsh, but it won’t be enough to take over games or compensate for their lack of offense. UCLA also faces a tough schedule with Kansas St, Texas, and Houston before they start conference play. The young guys will either gain quality experience or have their confidence shot in the process.

Projected record: 4-8

Projected losses: Houston, @Texas, @Cal, @Oregon, Arizona, Oregon St, @Washington, USC

Tossup games: ASU, WSU, Kansas St

Offensive rank #8, Defensive rank #6, Schedule rank #7, Total points -21

9. Arizona St

It was only three years ago that Arizona St was competing for the conference championship, but they are 9-15 since 2007 and are riding a six game losing streak into 2010. The offensive line has been a major problem for this team in the past three years and one of the main reasons they averaged only 22.3 ppg in 2010. The Sun Devils only welcome back three starters on offense and could be even worse than last year, their defense should be salty and will be led by the All-American Vontaze Burfict at MLB. They only return four starters, but they have are solid at defensive end and have proven the ability to stop the run. The schedule has them facing the best team of every region on the road (USC, Cal, Oregon, Washington), but they weren’t likely to beat them anyway so all of their home games become winnable. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them post a winning record at home, but for now we’ve got them pegged at 3-9.

Projected Record: 3-9

Projected losses: @Wisconsin, Oregon, @Oregon St, @Washington, @Cal, @USC, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA

Tossup games: WSU, Stanford, UCLA

Offensive rank #10, Defensive rank #5, Schedule rank #8, Total points – 23

10. Washington St

The good news for Washington St is that they face the best team from every region at home (Oregon, Cal, USC, Arizona) the bad news is that they won’t be able to win any of them. The Cougars only have a couple chances to get a conference win, and it will have to be against UCLA or ASU on the road. They have two capable QB’s in Jeff Tuel or Marshall Lobbestael, and I’m expecting both of them to play this year based on the 53 sacks they gave up a year ago. This is the deepest team that Paul Wulff has fielded since he’s been here, but they are still a couple years away from making some noise in the conference.

Projected record: 2-10

Projected wins: Montana St, SMU

Tossup games: ASU, UCLA

Offensive rank # 9, Defensive rank #10, Schedule rank #1 Total points – 20

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Pac-12 Playoffs: Elite 8

25 06 2010

#5 Cal vs #12 WSU This one ended before it even started with the Washington State team showing up in their favorite World Cup soccer jerseys. Coach Paul Wolff of the Cougars was quoted before heading back into the tunnel “When we heard about the Pac-12 playoff, we thought that we would be playing soccer to celebrate the the World Cup.” The uniform change didn’t help their cause as the Bears built a 35-3 lead at halftime with Shane Vereen scoring 2TD runs of 21 and 35 yards and Kevin Riley displaying some accuracy by connecting on 12 of 16 passes for 145 yards and a TD. Bears Roll On in this one 49-17.

#6 UW vs #11 Colorado Jake Locker kicked off his Heisman campaign in a big way and did a little bit of hazing of the new Pac-12 member in the process.  After Locker’s third TD in the game he turned over to the Colorado sideline and threw the ball at head coach Dan Hawkins. The Huskies were powerful on offense racking up 515 yards, but they gave up 425 to an average CU offense. Huskies rolled 38-14.

#7 Stanford vs # 10 Arizona St. This game looked more like an SEC low-scoring snooze fest than a Pac-12 shootout as the defenses dominated the game.  The Stanford offense really struggled with their new running backs failing to gain positive yardage on the ground until the third quarter. The Arizona St defense was aggressive with their blitzes and Andrew Luck couldn’t capitalize on his opportunities. Chris Owusu had Stanford’s only TD on a kickoff return, which wasn’t enough to overcome two Cardinal turnovers in their own redzone. Arizona St took advantage of the short field and took a 14-13 lead with 7 minutes to play and the defense didn’t allow another first down to finish up the game.

#8 Arizona vs #9 UCLA

Nick Foles and Juron Criner connected on 9 passes for 121 yards and a TD and the Wildcats ground game picked up 220 yards against UCLA’s rebuilding defense. Kevin Prince and the UCLA revolver offense were firing blanks all afternoon as the sophomore finished just 7 of 18 passing to go with 25 yards rushing. Coach Rick Neuheisel says they need more target practice. Arizona 27 – UCLA 13

Round two of the playoffs features so get your picks in.

#1 Oregon vs #8 Arizona – Who can forget the battle that these two had in the desert last year with Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli stealing this game like it was a Macbook Pro in a fraternity. Oregon overcame a 24-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win this one in double OT. Arizona should be playing with passion in this game, but the Ducks are favored by 4.

#2 USC vs #10 ASU – USC is anxious to start its new era of Trojan football with Lane Kiffin leading the helm and he’s literally riding that white Trojan horse into the stadium to get the fans energized. USC is favored by 17.

#3 OSU vs #6 Washington – This one pairs two Heisman candidates in Jake Locker and Jacquizz Rodgers. Will it be Locker’s arm or Jacquizz’s legs that steal the show? Beavers are 3 point favorites.

#4 Utah vs #5 Cal – The Mormons and Hippies battle it out again in a rematch of the Poinsettia Bowl. Jordan Wynn is excited after dominating the Bears and coming home with the MVP honors of the bowl game. Utes favored by 2.

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