Pac-10 Blue Chip Team Scores

11 08 2010

I had a lot of trouble with the formatting of this article, so I just had to put the information into excel and made some jpeg files out of the information which look blurry on the blog, but will be clear if you click on them. Mike Lombardi came up with this blue-chip formula to determine how much talent is on each team in the NFL, but I only follow former Pac-10 players and wanted to see how our conference would look applying the same scoring system. The outside linebackers account for 2.5 more points than the middle linebackers, which makes sense for the NFL where most teams are using a 3-4 defense, but the majority of teams in college are still using a four man front and the middle linebacker can impact the game more than an outside linebacker – think Casey Matthews of Oregon and Vontaze Burfict of ASU. I was also concerned that the red chip secondary players received the same 7.5 points as the blue chip players. There are many talented players in the NFL secondaries, but in college there aren’t that many cornerbacks and safeties that would make as big of an impact as many of the blue chip players at other positions.

Arizona has a total of 80 points with a good mix of offensive and defensive players, with points coming from both the skill positions and in the trenches. Arizona State only has 30 points with 22.5 of those coming from the defensive side of the ball, so don’t expect them to be lighting up the scoreboard any time soon. Cal surprised me with 82 points, but Tedford has recruited as well as any coach in the conference not named Pete Carroll.
Arizona Points Arizona St Points Cal Points
Nick Foles 12.5 Lawrence Guy 7.5 Mitchell Schwartz 10
Adam Grant 10 Vontaze Burfict 7.5 Cameron Jordan 10
Ricky Elmore 10 Omar Bolden 7.5 Anthony Miller 7.5
Juron Criner 7.5 Thomas Weber 7.5 Matt Summers-Gavin 7.5
Colin Baxter 7.5 Mike Mohamed 7.5
Trevin Wade 7.5 Bryan Anger 7.5
Robert Golden 7.5 Mychal Kendricks 7.5
James Brooks 7.5 Sean Cattouse 7.5
Nic Grigsby 5 Kevin Riley 7
Shane Vereen 5
Marvin Jones 5
Chris Guarnero 5
Derrick Hill 5
Oregon brings 82.5 points with strength in the trenches. I think Casey Matthews is more valuable to their defense than the 7.5 points he’s allotted, but Paysinger received a higher rating in the formula and evened out the same number of points I would have given them combined. Oregon State has a lot of skill players, but without much depth in the trenches their team only accounts for 55 points so this tells me that they should be relying on the big plays this season. Stanford brings almost all of their 67.5 points on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Owusu probably would have made the list as the next red-chip wide receiver, but he gets 7.5 points for his kick return abilities.

Oregon Points Oregon St Points Stanford Points
Bo Thran 10 JacQuizz Rodgers 7.5 Andrew Luck 12.5
Kenny Rowe 10 James Rodgers 7.5 David DeCastro 7.5
Spencer Paysinger 10 Joe Halahuni 7.5 Chris Owusu 7.5
LaMichael James 7.5 Stephen Paea 7.5 Chase Beeler 7.5
Carson York 7.5 Lance Mitchell 7.5 Delondo Howell 7.5
Casey Matthews 7.5 Justin Kahut 7.5 Ryan Whalen 5
John Boyett 7.5 Michael Philipp 5 Jonathan Martin 5
Talmadge Jackson 7.5 Alex Linnekohl 5 Owen Maracic 5
Jeff Maehl 5 Andrew Phillips 5
Mark Asper 5 Shane Skov 5
Brandon Bair 5

UCLA will be carried by their defense and special teams this year, but that’s two thirds of the game so maybe they’ll do better than the 8th place finish the media projected them for. Still, they are only bringing 45 points to the table and having a kicker be the most dangerous weapon on your offense is never a good sign. USC is stocked with talent throughout the roster so it’s no surprise that they are the Leader of the Pac with 84 points in the blue chip scoring. The Washington Huskies totaled 42.5 points and will be relying on a strong passing game to win some games for them, but there’s not much talent on the offensive or defensive lines.

UCLA Points USC Points Washington Points
Akeem Ayers 10 Tyron Smith 10 Jake Locker 12.5
Kai Forbath 7.5 Butch Lewis 7.5 Mason Foster 10
Rahim Moore 7.5 Kris O’Dowd 7.5 Desmond Trufant 7.5
Jeff Locke 7.5 Jurrell Casey 7.5 Jermaine Kearse 7.5
Sheldon Price 7.5 Shareece Wright 7.5 Chris Polk 5
Nelson Rosario 5 Malcolm Smith 7.5
Michael Morgan 7.5
Matt Barkley 7
Nick Perry 7
Ronald Johnson 5
Stanley Havili 5
Chris Galippo 5

Here’s all of the team points in alphabetical order and these are pretty consistent with my conference predictions which were posted a month ago.

Points
Arizona 80
ASU 30
Cal 82
Oregon 82.5
Oregon State 55
Stanford 67.5
UCLA 45
USC 84
Washington 42.5

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Pac 12 Playoffs : Final Four

28 06 2010

#1 Oregon vs #8 Arizona

In what looked like an easy road for Oregon to the Pac-12 championship, quickly turned into off-roading in a Ford Pinto. Arizona forced a Nate Costa fumble on a Brooks Reed sack at midfield and Nick Foles threw three straight completions to give the Wildcats a 7-0 lead. LaMichael James had difficulty running up the middle, but had some success on tosses and sweeps with three runs of 20+ yards. Nic Grisby scored a 35 yard touchdown run on the opening drive of the second half to give Arizona a 20-10 lead, but the Ducks would not go away easily. Senior quarterback Nate Costa led an eight play 71 yard drive to bring the score to 20-17 midway through the third quarter. With five minutes to play, Oregon would take a 24-20 lead behind a 15 yard HB pass to LaMichael James. Mike Stoops looked inconceivably calm as the Wildcats just squandered the lead.  Nick Foles would throw over the top of blown coverage by Talmadge Jackson in the secondary to take a 27-24 lead with 55 seconds to play. The Ducks converted two first downs to get to the 40 yard line, but missed the potential game tying 57 yard FG.

#2 USC vs #10 ASU

Contrary to the rumors, Pete Carroll did not call the plays for Lane Kiffin during the game through his Twitter page, he sent him all the information he needed the night before via facebook message.

Matt Barkley looked more svelte after dropping some of his baby fat in the off-season and his improved mobility was displayed with constant pressure from the ASU defense. Barkley threw for 215 yards on 14 of 23 passing and with two TD’s and an INT. True freshman Dillon Baxter had a youtube worthy 25 yard TD run on a left toss where he slipped past two ASU defenders who came crashing into each other as they reached out for the tackle. The Sun Devils managed just 250 yards of total offense and managed just 10 points while giving up 390 yards and 27 points.

#3 OSU vs #6 UW

Oregon St got off to a strong start with James Rodgers returning the opening kickoff to the UW 27 yard line. His younger brother Jacquizz Rodgers finished the drive with a 7 yard TD run to take an early 7-0 lead. On the ensuing drive Chris Polk was met by Stephen Paea in the backfield on a on third and one play to force a Huskies punt. Three minutes before halftime, Huskies cornerback Desmond Trufant picked off a Ryan Katz pass and returned it thirty eight yards for a TD to give the Huskies a 10-7 lead. After an exchange of TD’s in the third quarter the Beavers took a 21-17 lead on a James Rodgers screen pass. Jake Locker saved his best drive for last as he completed 7 of 8 passes for 71 yards to give the Huskies a 24-21 lead with 21 seconds left in the game. The Beavers failed to convert a first down as time expired.

#4 Utah vs #5 Cal

In the rematch of the Poinsettia Bowl the Bears were determined to contain Utah QB Jordan Wynn. Jeff Tedford took a page out of the Cobra Kai’s method of business and the Bears were more aggressive from the start. Cal defensive end Cameron Jordan came up with two sacks, three QB knockdowns, and 2 late hit penalties to set the tone for the defense and the Utah offense never got into a rhythm. Kevin Riley had a solid  performance hitting 16 of 25 passes for 210 yards and Shane Vareen carried the ground game with 135 yards on 25 carries. Coach Jeff Tedford was quoted after the game saying that he’s boycotting the new Karate Kid, because he’s such a big Ralph Maccio fan and he was even seen doing a crane kick as the time expired with a 31-23 Bears victory.The Bears advance to face Arizona in the Final Four.

The Final Four pairs up

#2 USC vs #6 Washington – Can the former Trojan coaches Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt stay undefeated against their former colleague in Lane Kiffin? Trojans favored by 10.

#5 Cal vs #8 Arizona – Cal survived against a potential game winning drive from Arizona in 2009 by a strange Nick Foles double pass, will they get lucky again? Bears favored by 3

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